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Given that geopolitics has been the source of most headlines in recent weeks, central bank policy has fallen from the top spot, although remains a significant factor impacting markets. As four of the largest developed market central bank have now held their first meetings of the year, it’s important to revisit this topic.

Given that geopolitics has been the source of most headlines in recent weeks, central bank policy has fallen from the top spot, although remains a significant factor impacting markets. As four of the largest developed market central bank have now held their first meetings of the year, it’s important to revisit this topic.

It’s only a slight oversimplification to say that what mattered most in equity markets in 2024 was: how much you were spending on AI, how much your AI clients were buying from you and how close your CEO was to the incoming US president.

Earlier this week, a little-known Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) start-up called DeepSeek roiled markets by launching its competitor to ChatGPT. The powerful AI model was created with far less money than AI experts thought possible.

Last year, we saw how periods of high inflation increased pressure on incumbent governments around the world. However, given President Donald Trump’s America-first agenda has the capacity to exacerbate price pressures, it seems that inflation concerns will take some time to fade.

Gilts have been weak since the Labour government’s budget in October, although broadly tracked US Treasury movements. But this week, we witnessed sharp moves, with yields on ten-year gilts surpassing 4.8% for the first time in 17 years, and 30-year gilt yields exceeding 5.35% for the first time in 27 years.

2024 saw US economic growth gather steam as the Federal Reserve orchestrated a soft landing, creating an environment where earnings and corporate confidence supported equities and credit markets. Learn more about last quarter's activities in the global market.

Central banks were active this week, as both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England held their final meetings of the year, setting the stage for what is sure to be a very interesting 2025.

In November, the US elected Donald Trump as their 47th President, but what impact could this result have on markets? Looking more broadly across the rest of the world, geopolitical events and inflation continue to create uncertainty as we approach the end of the year.

2024 has undeniably been another momentous year for US equities, with returns dominated by the strong performance of technology stocks. We look back on the year from both an investment perspective and through the lens of the issues and developments that have both impacted and will impact our clients in the future.